Gold has always been one of the most closely watched investment instruments, especially during periods of global economic uncertainty. Its dynamic movements keep investors constantly scanning for the best moment to enter the market or add to their portfolio. Many are now asking the same question: when will gold prices rise again?
It's a topic that's been generating a lot of discussion, particularly after gold prices have trended downward recently due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Many investors have been holding off on buying, waiting for what feels like the right moment.
But understanding when gold prices will rise isn't as simple as checking a daily chart. There are several bigger forces shaping the direction of gold prices going forward. Treasury has put together a roundup of expert views on when gold prices could rise and what factors might drive that move. Read on for the full picture.
When Will Gold Prices Rise, According to the Experts
1. Short-Term Correction Risk Remains on the Table
Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, sees potential pressure in the near term. He notes that the momentum behind gold's recovery is starting to fade. In his view, gold's earlier rebound from the USD 4,510 per ounce area failed to hold at USD 4,647 per ounce.
This signals that the market isn't yet strong enough to sustain further gains. Chandler also pointed out that gold could revisit the USD 4,495 per ounce level. If that level doesn't hold, prices could fall further toward the USD 4,400 per ounce range.
Given this, the question of when gold prices will rise in the short term remains unanswered with any real conviction, as technical pressure is still fairly strong.
2. Hawkish Policy Adds Pressure from the Macro Side
Beyond technical factors, when gold prices rise is also heavily influenced by the global macroeconomic environment. Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at ForexLive, highlighted the tendency of central banks to adopt aggressive or hawkish policy stances. This kind of policy typically comes into play when inflation remains elevated, leading central banks to hold or even raise interest rates.
The effect is that interest-bearing instruments become more attractive compared to gold. In this environment, investor appetite for gold tends to weaken because it doesn't offer a yield the way bonds or deposits do. This makes it harder for gold prices to move higher in the near term.
This means that to understand when gold prices will rise, keeping a close eye on central bank policy direction, particularly from the United States, is essential.
3. The Medium-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Taking a different view from the short-term perspective, Lorenzo Portelli, Head of Cross Asset Strategy at Amundi Investment Institute, sees a brighter picture ahead. He considers the current pressure to be temporary in nature. Portelli noted that the energy disruption stemming from the Iran conflict is likely to have only a short-lived impact on inflation.
In his view, the market will find its footing again within the coming months. He even projected that gold prices could potentially reach USD 5,500 within the next 12 months, suggesting that the upside opportunity remains wide open.
He also emphasized that a roughly 15% decline from January's peak means much of the negative sentiment has already been priced in. This increases the likelihood of a rebound and gives a clearer hint as to when gold prices might start moving higher again.
4. A Stable Outlook with Gradual Upside Potential
Citi's projections offer a more moderate picture. In the near term, gold prices are expected to move around USD 4,300 per ounce. While that may sound conservative, Citi still sees room for gains in the medium term. Over a 6 to 12 month horizon, gold prices are projected to potentially reach USD 5,000 per ounce.
This rise is expected to materialize as market confidence in safe-haven assets recovers, particularly if global uncertainty continues. From these projections, it becomes clear that the answer to when gold prices will rise points more toward the medium term rather than the immediate future.
Factors That Could Drive Gold Prices Higher
1. Geopolitical Conditions
Geopolitical developments are often one of the most immediate triggers affecting markets. Right now, global attention is focused on the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. The conflict, which has yet to fully settle, has been keeping energy markets unstable.
Oil and energy prices tend to rise due to the risk of supply disruptions. This fuels inflation while also increasing global uncertainty. In this kind of environment, gold can actually face downward pressure. Investors tend to hold back on buying because high interest rate expectations make other instruments more attractive.
So, contrary to the classic assumption, rising geopolitical tensions don't automatically push gold prices up. On the other hand, when tensions begin to ease and energy prices stabilize, inflationary pressure can ease as well. This opens the door for central banks to become more flexible on interest rates, which in turn creates a more favorable environment for gold.
2. The Movement of the US Dollar
The movement of the US dollar is an important indicator for understanding when gold prices will rise. The relationship between the two tends to be inverse, meaning shifts in the dollar have a direct impact on gold. When the global economy is uncertain and energy prices are rising, the dollar typically strengthens.
However, this actually makes gold more expensive for investors outside the United States. As a result, demand for gold can soften and prices tend to face pressure in the short term. Conversely, when the dollar starts to weaken, gold becomes more affordable globally, which can support a rise in prices.
3. Central Bank Interest Rate Policy
Interest rate policy, particularly from central banks like the Fed, is another key factor in determining when gold prices will rise. When inflation is high, central banks tend to hold or raise interest rates to keep inflation from climbing further.
This has a direct impact on gold's appeal. Interest-bearing instruments like bonds and deposits become more attractive because they offer clearly higher returns, while gold offers no yield, making it less competitive in that environment.
However, the situation can change when inflation begins to cool and interest rates are cut. That shift can bring renewed interest in gold as its opportunity cost falls. That moment could mark an early answer to when gold prices will rise.
4. Central Bank Gold Purchases
Demand for gold from central banks is one of the more fundamental and powerful factors in determining when gold prices will rise. In recent years, the trend of central bank gold buying has been consistently growing. Countries such as China have been adding to their gold reserves as part of a broader asset diversification strategy.
The goal is to reduce dependence on the US dollar and maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves. Large-scale purchases by central banks have a direct effect on global demand. When demand rises consistently, gold prices tend to be pushed gradually higher.
Beyond that, these moves by central banks are often seen by other investors as a signal of confidence in gold, which further strengthens the case for when gold prices could rise, particularly over the medium to long term.
Looking at the full range of analysis and influencing factors, there's no definitive answer to exactly when gold prices will rise in the near term. Short-term pressure from both technical signals and global policy remains real, but the opportunity for a rise is still very much open as market sentiment improves. The combination of geopolitical conditions, interest rate direction, and dollar movement will continue to be the main drivers.
That said, you don't need to be fixated solely on the question of when gold prices will rise. What matters more is understanding the momentum and having the right strategy. Look at the bigger picture and avoid rushing into decisions. One of the wisest approaches to investing is staying consistent.
Gold has long been recognized as a stable investment instrument that holds up well against inflation. A price correction like this can actually be a good opportunity to add to your gold investment and position yourself for long-term gains. So don't hesitate. Get back into the habit of investing in digital gold regularly through the Treasury app!
Gold has always been one of the most closely watched investment instruments, especially during periods of global economic uncertainty. Its dynamic movements keep investors constantly scanning for the best moment to enter the market or add to their portfolio. Many are now asking the same question: when will gold prices rise again?
It's a topic that's been generating a lot of discussion, particularly after gold prices have trended downward recently due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Many investors have been holding off on buying, waiting for what feels like the right moment.
But understanding when gold prices will rise isn't as simple as checking a daily chart. There are several bigger forces shaping the direction of gold prices going forward. Treasury has put together a roundup of expert views on when gold prices could rise and what factors might drive that move. Read on for the full picture.
When Will Gold Prices Rise, According to the Experts
1. Short-Term Correction Risk Remains on the Table
Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, sees potential pressure in the near term. He notes that the momentum behind gold's recovery is starting to fade. In his view, gold's earlier rebound from the USD 4,510 per ounce area failed to hold at USD 4,647 per ounce.
This signals that the market isn't yet strong enough to sustain further gains. Chandler also pointed out that gold could revisit the USD 4,495 per ounce level. If that level doesn't hold, prices could fall further toward the USD 4,400 per ounce range.
Given this, the question of when gold prices will rise in the short term remains unanswered with any real conviction, as technical pressure is still fairly strong.
2. Hawkish Policy Adds Pressure from the Macro Side
Beyond technical factors, when gold prices rise is also heavily influenced by the global macroeconomic environment. Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at ForexLive, highlighted the tendency of central banks to adopt aggressive or hawkish policy stances. This kind of policy typically comes into play when inflation remains elevated, leading central banks to hold or even raise interest rates.
The effect is that interest-bearing instruments become more attractive compared to gold. In this environment, investor appetite for gold tends to weaken because it doesn't offer a yield the way bonds or deposits do. This makes it harder for gold prices to move higher in the near term.
This means that to understand when gold prices will rise, keeping a close eye on central bank policy direction, particularly from the United States, is essential.
3. The Medium-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Taking a different view from the short-term perspective, Lorenzo Portelli, Head of Cross Asset Strategy at Amundi Investment Institute, sees a brighter picture ahead. He considers the current pressure to be temporary in nature. Portelli noted that the energy disruption stemming from the Iran conflict is likely to have only a short-lived impact on inflation.
In his view, the market will find its footing again within the coming months. He even projected that gold prices could potentially reach USD 5,500 within the next 12 months, suggesting that the upside opportunity remains wide open.
He also emphasized that a roughly 15% decline from January's peak means much of the negative sentiment has already been priced in. This increases the likelihood of a rebound and gives a clearer hint as to when gold prices might start moving higher again.
4. A Stable Outlook with Gradual Upside Potential
Citi's projections offer a more moderate picture. In the near term, gold prices are expected to move around USD 4,300 per ounce. While that may sound conservative, Citi still sees room for gains in the medium term. Over a 6 to 12 month horizon, gold prices are projected to potentially reach USD 5,000 per ounce.
This rise is expected to materialize as market confidence in safe-haven assets recovers, particularly if global uncertainty continues. From these projections, it becomes clear that the answer to when gold prices will rise points more toward the medium term rather than the immediate future.
Factors That Could Drive Gold Prices Higher
1. Geopolitical Conditions
Geopolitical developments are often one of the most immediate triggers affecting markets. Right now, global attention is focused on the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. The conflict, which has yet to fully settle, has been keeping energy markets unstable.
Oil and energy prices tend to rise due to the risk of supply disruptions. This fuels inflation while also increasing global uncertainty. In this kind of environment, gold can actually face downward pressure. Investors tend to hold back on buying because high interest rate expectations make other instruments more attractive.
So, contrary to the classic assumption, rising geopolitical tensions don't automatically push gold prices up. On the other hand, when tensions begin to ease and energy prices stabilize, inflationary pressure can ease as well. This opens the door for central banks to become more flexible on interest rates, which in turn creates a more favorable environment for gold.
2. The Movement of the US Dollar
The movement of the US dollar is an important indicator for understanding when gold prices will rise. The relationship between the two tends to be inverse, meaning shifts in the dollar have a direct impact on gold. When the global economy is uncertain and energy prices are rising, the dollar typically strengthens.
However, this actually makes gold more expensive for investors outside the United States. As a result, demand for gold can soften and prices tend to face pressure in the short term. Conversely, when the dollar starts to weaken, gold becomes more affordable globally, which can support a rise in prices.
3. Central Bank Interest Rate Policy
Interest rate policy, particularly from central banks like the Fed, is another key factor in determining when gold prices will rise. When inflation is high, central banks tend to hold or raise interest rates to keep inflation from climbing further.
This has a direct impact on gold's appeal. Interest-bearing instruments like bonds and deposits become more attractive because they offer clearly higher returns, while gold offers no yield, making it less competitive in that environment.
However, the situation can change when inflation begins to cool and interest rates are cut. That shift can bring renewed interest in gold as its opportunity cost falls. That moment could mark an early answer to when gold prices will rise.
4. Central Bank Gold Purchases
Demand for gold from central banks is one of the more fundamental and powerful factors in determining when gold prices will rise. In recent years, the trend of central bank gold buying has been consistently growing. Countries such as China have been adding to their gold reserves as part of a broader asset diversification strategy.
The goal is to reduce dependence on the US dollar and maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves. Large-scale purchases by central banks have a direct effect on global demand. When demand rises consistently, gold prices tend to be pushed gradually higher.
Beyond that, these moves by central banks are often seen by other investors as a signal of confidence in gold, which further strengthens the case for when gold prices could rise, particularly over the medium to long term.
Looking at the full range of analysis and influencing factors, there's no definitive answer to exactly when gold prices will rise in the near term. Short-term pressure from both technical signals and global policy remains real, but the opportunity for a rise is still very much open as market sentiment improves. The combination of geopolitical conditions, interest rate direction, and dollar movement will continue to be the main drivers.
That said, you don't need to be fixated solely on the question of when gold prices will rise. What matters more is understanding the momentum and having the right strategy. Look at the bigger picture and avoid rushing into decisions. One of the wisest approaches to investing is staying consistent.
Gold has long been recognized as a stable investment instrument that holds up well against inflation. A price correction like this can actually be a good opportunity to add to your gold investment and position yourself for long-term gains. So don't hesitate. Get back into the habit of investing in digital gold regularly through the Treasury app!
